Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Fantasy Beer Run

Time to stock the fridge, hide the delicates, give the neighbor the keys and get down to some serious draftin'!

If 2010 was the year of Arian Foster and inappropriate pictures of Favre's QB, then what will 2011 be? Will it be the year the league lowered our expectations so much that anything short of a strike would make for the greatest football season ever? I'm afraid so.* But what the hell, quality entertainment isn't everything, just look at ABC Family (shudders to think.)

So on with the show. I'm not going to bother telling you about Michael Vick or Adrian Peterson because you are going to draft them 1 & 2 no matter what I say. Which is fine. For once the top 8 or 9 picks are all quite workable. No Frank Gores, Steven Jacksons or Randy Mosses out there cluttering up the top line with their emeritus status. Jackson and Gore have finally slipped peacefully into the second round where they will still be drafted too high, and Moss has straight cashed out. Thank God!

The last thing you want is that debate over the return on your investment. And barring injury, this years top pix ought to have no trouble bringing the fantasy points. Ray Rice is the only guy on that list who stands out as a question mark and I'd take him in a second.

Players I love:
Calvin Johnson - It's easy to be dismissive of the Lions because of, well, they are the Lions. But you don't profit from buying a stock when it's at the apex, you buy low then ride that to the top. Megatron could be the best receiver to have in the league this year if no one's shoulder shatters (looking at you here Stafford).

Larry Fitzgerald - There are two things that can happen to a wide receiver to ruin their year: Injury and crappy QB play. Last year the Cards had a lot of the latter. Kevin Kolb should be an enourmous upgrade at QB and captain dreadlocks can help him get there.

Matt Forte - Roy Williams and Marion Barber should help Forte get back to the level he played at his rookie season. Not saying that Roy is be all end all at WR, he clearly isn't, but for the Bears he's an upgrade from Johnny Knox and Devin Hester, which opens the game up for Cutler and therefore opens it up for Forte.

Miles Austin - You simply can't overstate chemistry between QBs and receivers and Romo loves himself some Miles Austin.

DeAngelo Williams - He is a bargain in the 4th round. Offense will be better and when Cam steps in he'll draw a lot of attention away from the other backs.

Wes Welker - His knee is made of Christmas miracles, what else do you need to know?

Ryan Grant - Average Draft position is top of the fifth round. If he stays healthy he's far and away the best rushing option on a wide open offense. No one's stacking the box against Green Bay.

Felix Jones - You know what? Fine. I say this every freaking year. And every freaking year this guy gets run out of Dallas by Marion Barber. But Barber is gone and you can't lose carries to a guy who isn't there. Having said that I retract this pick if the Cowboys pick up Tiki Barber in free agency (which they won't, right, seriously, they'd better not).

Fred Jackson - (See Felix Jones only replace the name Barber with Lynch). After Marshawn left Fred had a good season. I think he's a monster waiting to happen. You don't like it? Well, that's why you didn't finish in 3rd place in 2 out of 3 leagues last year. My creds are huge.

Time is running low here so let's hit a coupla sleepers and then say one thing in general about quarterbacks before the battery on my iPad dies (I've been watching Friday Night Lights for 16 hours straight).

1) Sleepers - Tim Hightower, Michael Bush, Danny Amendola, Rashad Jennings, Ben Tate and Steve Breaston.

2) QBs. Really? Does it matter at this point? The rules are so QB friendly that 8 guys are solid starts. If you can't figure out which they are then, well, I'm sorry. So don't reach for Rodgers or Vick, someone will and you can just wait a minute and get yourself a Stafford or a Rivers or a Brady. Those guys are pretty good, you know.

*Speaking of lowered expectations...you probably thought I was going to hit you with a linear run down of top picks position-by-position, didn't you? Not this year, baby. But I'll guarantee you this, if you draft 3 of the guys I've mentioned and you put a cork in your QB envy, you'll finish in the money and if you don't I'll let you read this site for free all next year.

Good luck, bro.


Anonymous said...

I agree with you on the QB's. Vick and Rodgers upside is negated by the injury risk (they run a lot and therefore get hit a lot).

What is your thinking on Amendola though?
And where do you rank Olsen?

The Owners said...

Panthers are a tough call. But Olsen could be a good sleeper, I see Cam checking down quite a bit.